MAPE President Megan Dayton’s statement on November 2025 Budget Forecast Statement
Publish Date
Minnesota’s budget outlook remains steady for the current biennium, but the state continues to face long-term structural challenges. Yesterday's forecast projects a $2.5 billion surplus in the current budget period and a deficit of nearly $3 billion in the next, not including inflation. The gap reflects slower economic growth and continued cost pressures in health and human services programs.
The forecast does not yet reflect significant federal policy changes, and state analysts have noted that these shifts are likely to increase demand on Minnesota’s budget in the years ahead. We will continue to press for budgets that protect essential public services and ensure state agencies and colleges have the resources they need to meet their obligations.
Earlier projections suggested a deeper shortfall later in the decade. Minor revenue improvements and targeted adjustments made in the 2025 legislative session narrowed that gap, but the state’s underlying position has not fundamentally changed. Much of the current surplus consists of one-time resources that do not solve the long-term imbalance between ongoing revenues and ongoing expenditures.
State leaders need to adopt a realistic approach in the next session. Minnesota cannot rely on temporary surpluses to fund ongoing commitments. A responsible budget will require a serious discussion about sustainable revenue and protection of the public workforce that delivers the services Minnesotans depend on.